Better days ahead.

This picture of a beautiful Baptist church in Co Kildare, Ireland, where I live reminds me of better days ahead.

As science, pharma innovation and public health measures reduce the impact of Covid19, economies will bounce back and friends and relations will socialise together in groups once more.

America, reflecting on the outcome of the George Floyd murder trial, the recriminations of the storming of Capital Hill, the ousting of Trump and the first 100 days of President Biden, is grappling with a larger question perhaps? That is the history of race in America. However, one can only admire US ingenuity in developing vaccines to tackle the virus, accelerating their vaccination roll-out as well as stimulating the commercialisation of vaccines to the world. Meanwhile immigration across the southern border, a lighting rod issue during Trump's presidency has worsened. This issue will resurface certainly in the mid term elections as a major debating point on President Biden's administration once Covid subsides.

Autocracies in China and Russia also have expedited domestic vaccine development and immunisation to their citizens. The tortuous and tentative progress in Europe by comparison, points to the structural issues at the heart of Europe - an ageing population, the reality of nation states participating in a pseudo-federation, whilst protecting national autonomy in other key areas of financial and healthcare policy. Its noteworthy that Ireland, which needs to pass referenda for further integration into Europe has a majority of 52% against. This would likely increase if such a question were put to the people today.

Global greenhouse gas emissions reduced during Covid, are forecast to bounce back. China and the USA are adding coal burning capacity for power generation. Biden summoning world leaders to climate talks is very welcome. But, as to if and how fast, he can bring the great American public with him in greening America's red and blue states is another matter.

Innovations from Tesla, General Motors and others in electric vehicles will assist, but the scale up in charging capacity for EV's even with Tesla's infrastructure will take years and billions of dollars more.

Europe, Africa and Asia are all in turmoil for different reasons. Political turbulence, restless populations, economic stagnation, totalitarian and military governments. Hong Kong, Myanmar, Ukraine, ancient schisms between the world's great religions, Afghanistan? Weak protests for democracy and strong armies of repression. These have started to make the year post Covid appear, all too familiar. In fact, to me, its indistinguishable from so many years of the past four decades.

The world's population is growing but long term demographic predictions point to population decline post the year 2100 - some 80 years hence (most of us I assume will be dead by then). We have ample (if unequally shared ) food for now, enough science to quash a pandemic, enough economic stimulus to propel our capitalist and socialist models along. Future opportunities to enjoy friends, family company, indoors and out.

So better days ahead certainly.

It would be something if the world's citizens, who have passed a year of isolation and economic stagnation, when reflecting on their circumstance identify alternative means to power their homes and lives, new ways to address old problems, new possibilities to address ancient challenges. We shall see. Global Earth day has come and gone...."whither Global Earth"?

President Biden's US stimulus plan will be a boon for infrastructure, a boon for blue collar jobs. His global tax policies, though far reaching are not heretical and in fact may be timely, when we consider how large corporations can pay far less tax proportionally than "Joe the Plumber". His leaning left in America, may not be as unpopular with centrist republicans and small government proponents as we think. In fact, as awful as it is to say, he is appearing distinctly European.

Ireland is not a tax haven as labelled by the President, but we do offer a lower corporate rate than many countries. Europe's BEPS and Digital tax planning along with the OECD's global tax policy review will inevitably lessen Ireland's corporation tax receipts in the future.....something in Ireland we must accept and act on now. Our SME sector is underweight and needs seriously stimulating policies if it is to replace declining FDI flows.

The former President Trump denied the daily megaphone of his twitter account, is relevant within in the GOP of Republicanism and for the upcoming mid term US elections. But for those of us in Europe, for now at least, he is far away and little heard. Better days are here already.

The new EU agricultural policy is going to put sustainability firmly on the food, farming and fishing agenda. That can only be good. It's time to link food production, consumption and impact together. The growth in our own national herd must be curtailed and our transport emissions reassessed. Our green island with 48% of power delivered sustainably already, needs to accelerate our clean power generation if we are to exploit the opportunities coming from green energy. But these policies have far reaching and financially negative impacts for rural Ireland...trade offs do not come free or cheap. How many of us are prepared to lose today to win sometime in the future? Consumer movements from animal to plant based proteins do not help Ireland. But structural change is coming and must be accommodated.

Biological populations usually rise and fall in tandem with plenty and scarcity. Our forbears in becoming farmers largely conquered food scarcity. Today, our builders, financiers, politicians, entrepreneurs, inventors engineers, scientists, labourers, teachers and society generally, contributed to build global cities and cultures of dazzling complexity, beauty and diversity. That is not to overlook centuries of war, genocide and conflict which was a major driver of change also.

But being nation states and not a unified human race, we have also failed to impose limits on ourselves, to see our personal selves as part of the planet...a tiny part. We must change our view of ourselves as "Planetary Kings", entitled to exploit its riches as if they existed in infinite abundance. Rather we can identify ourselves as stewards of our world, stewards whose own decisions and behaviours cascade into impacts for all other species and ultimately ourselves.

Whilst we consider what to grow and harvest, we must consider what to grow and leave behind. The same is true for our investing practice. A widespread global reflection across a range of personal and societal priorities would indeed be a cause for optimism and better days ahead.

Humanity has increased in population size to some 7.9 billion from 2 billion in the year 1900 - a remarkable achievement. As we add ever more, older, wiser heads, to our number, we still appear to be failing in this most basic piece of husbandry. That is, to leave the planet better than we found it.

China's extraordinary one child policy, repugnant to the rest of the world, has not fully arrested Chinese population growth. Moreover, an increasingly affluent and voracious Chinese consumer has already tilted the global economic winds east. China's extensive moves into green energy may one day offset its pursuit of more coal burning power stations today, but not anytime soon.

Africa, modernising as it is, is also greatly increasing populations in areas where more food and export production, inevitably comes at the expense of the local ecosystem. The West itself is often the major customer and driver of these economic decisions, impacting deforestation in Africa, Brazil and South America. Western consumers should reflect on our personal consumption and its impacts - as it goes in business.."if consumers don't buy it, producers won't make it".

Covid19 has not been the winnower of our global population such a pandemic might be, albeit a dreadful experience. We can now envision without imagination, how a more virulent enemy could destroy generations of humans. Perhaps in how we live from now, our lives may reflect a greater understanding and engagement with this planet we call home.

The individual usually lacks the luxury and seldom the instinct to put the needs of the world above their own. But the personal consumption of many of us before March 2020, might be a cause for reflection and action after Covid19. The daily office commute is one casualty for many, who have discovered that time and true wealth are intrinsically connected.

The questions Covid has posed about our personal priorities, our lifestyles and our relationships, our place in our communities and on this planet will persist for many. How we interact with each other, our own purpose for "being" and our impact in the here and now, on practical matters, challenges us to reflect on many problems we can no longer shrink from. That is no bad thing.....better days ahead indeed!