All changed, changed utterly...

Its hard to think of a year in recent times where one has the feeling of standing on the cusp of history.

Two defining and largely unrelated events which have their origins in decisions taken over many years are swirling around Ireland particularly and the US and European economies generally. They are the ongoing Q.E. and accommodative fiscal policies pursued by the US and EU since the financial crisis and of course, Brexit!

Quantitative easing, facilitative bond purchases, artificially low interest rates, etc., have created a wall of money diverted from central banks into the industrial economy. Such fiscal largesse designed to stimulate economic activity, eventually results in the virtuous feedback loop of higher inflation, leading to higher interest rates, to stronger currencies and asset prices, restoring economies to a more balanced debt and expenditure level.....or so goes the theory.

However, we now see three continental powers, China, the USA and EU all seeking to drive down their respective currencies to home advantage. We have an unwanted trade war between the US and China, slowing growth across all markets, including Japan, who have been on an expansionary economic policy experiment of their own for several years. This one has not worked but demonstrates "Stagflation" - that noxious combination of rising interest rates with economic stagnation.

The interconnected global financial market now means we are all tied to the fates of our neighbours. Trump's trade war is hurting US industry, who must pay his import tariffs on Chinese imports. Rising prices for US consumers threaten his own economy, one he has bolstered with tax cuts, Q.E. and bullying of the Fed to follow his economic dictats. His Presidential campaign in 2020 depends on keeping the party going. Thus, swelling the deficit and ballooning the national debt are not concerns for the "Deal maker", who has been a lifelong debt junkie throughout his real estate career.

It is not possible to defy gravity. The unwinding of trillions of dollars of Q.E. across the world must inevitably correct if the financial system is to remain in some sort of balance. So where goes USA and EU, there must go Ireland.

If the global trade winds from USA and EU for Ireland were not bad enough, we have the almost domestic and local disaster of Brexit. Our neighbours have turned a national debate about control and representation in Europe, into an exit from the EU as a mark of national and individual patriotism.

A tiny majority within a minority of the electorate who voted for Brexit and the majority of under 200,000 Conservative party members have combined to propel the 70 odd million UK citizens into an experiment without precedent. The departure mode looks to be a sudden rupture of trade and relationships on October 31st. Those of us who regard the quintessential Englishman as a cool, thoughtful and generally pragmatic person are surprised to see a national fervour take hold, to up-end the dinner table and all its contents. Not a very English thing to do, one would have thought.

Thus, Ireland will be thrust into an experiment of our own, albeit by forces outside our control. This will be a testing time for industry, politics and our communities north and south of an inevitable border. Not a new border but a very unwelcome reminder of hard times past and a harbinger of trouble to come. All too familiar to anyone versed in Ireland's recent history.

Who knows what lies ahead. We must as the old war poster says "Keep calm and carry on" for what else is there to do and history like stock markets is replete with examples of extraordinary ups and downs. Questions as to the break-up of the Union in the United Kingdom, independence for Scotland, a border poll in Northern Ireland are more "unfathomables". October 31st - just 11 weeks away or so, will be a telling and trying time for all of the neighbours who inhabit these two main Islands on this side of Western Europe.